How to Build a Hurricane

Posted At : April 14, 2010 4:37 PM | Posted By : Laura Marsan
Related Categories: General

At a 1972 conference, meteorologist Edward Lorenz gave a talk titled as a question, "Predictability: Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?" He was asking if one small action could set off a cascade of events that would culminate in something big and unexpected. He'd been working on a computer program to predict weather and punched in numerical data to six places past the decimal point. The program predicted, say, mild rain, light winds, and a high pressure system.

Later he re-ran the same program and, for simplicity's sake, rounded the data to three places past the decimal point. The rounded data only varied by thousandths, but this time the program predicted hard rain, gale force winds, and a low pressure system. In short, a hurricane.

Lorenz was explaining chaos theory – the theory that one small change, like the single flap of a butterfly's wings, can produce an entirely different, and possibly catastrophic, outcome.

Last summer, while working as a public health nurse visiting mothers and infants newly discharged from the hospital for their postpartum and newborn assessments, a young man I didn't know and had never met flashed a gun at me. I was walking toward the back of a set of townhouses. He sat on the stoop directly across, rose from sitting to standing as I neared and lifted his left arm slightly as I said, "Good morning." Noticing an L-shaped opaque black object in his left hand, I stared longer than I had a right to – at the hollow double eyes at the tip and watched at every moment for the plane of it's face to be flush with mine. It never was.

He gestured with it nonchalantly, easily, as if it were a can of pop. He did not threaten, but wondered aloud, as he waved the gun for emphasis, if it might rain.

Why would this kid just be sitting on his porch with a gun in his lap? It was a Saturday morning. The neighborhood was sleeping. Was he heading out to get someone? Was he waiting for someone to get him?

I didn't complete the home visit, but turned and walked back to my car.

In 2008, 7th through 12th graders in the Cincinnati region were asked: "In the past year, have you ever carried a gun to school?" Six percent reported they had carried a weapon on school property during the previous 30 days. The chart below compares the percent of females and males in the 7th – 12th grades who reported carrying a gun to school in 2008.

Source: Coalition for a Drug-Free Cincinnati, PRIDE Survey (OASIS, 2010)

In the United States in 2005, about 1.5 million students ages 12 to 18 were victims of non-fatal crimes at school. Eight percent of all students and 10 percent of males (as compared to six percent of females) surveyed in grades 9 through 12 reported threats of injuries with a weapon on school property in the previous 12 months (USDE, 2007). With over 55.7 million children enrolled in kindergarten through 12th grade, preventing and reducing school violence is a public health priority.

While this item is only one measure of a two-page survey, carrying a gun to school is an indicator of other community health concerns: low levels of civic engagement, community-wide symptoms of trauma, higher rates of preterm birth, higher rates of illicit drug use. And all together, these separate elements coalesce as the perfect storm: violence.

Unlike meteorology, we don't predict in public health, we assess and plan using the web of causation as a model. We'd look at the kid on the stoop with the gun and trace backward, examining his risk factors. And even though I didn't know this kid, the research suggests that all of the following would be likely characteristics of his life:

The chances he was preterm: high.
The chances that he was abused: high.
The chances he abuses illicit drugs: high.
The chances he was bullied: high.
The chances a weapon has been pointed at him in his lifetime: high.
The chances he never finished high school: high.

But if, as Lorenz suggested, a hurricane might be prevented by a change in one variable by the thousandths, might the perfect storm of school violence be similarly prevented by community programs that positively influence any of the above factors, even a little? Such as WIC, drug prevention and treatment programs, parenting programs? Examining this will be the subject of my next blog.

For further reading: Resnick, M.D., Ireland, M., Borowsky, I. (2004). Youth violence perpetration: what protects? What predicts? Findings from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Journal of Adolescent Health 35(424), 1 – 10.

This blog is the third in a series about school violence.

OASIS
The Online Analysis and Statistical Information System
Turning Statistics into Information
Take me to OASIS!

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